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Risk measurement involves estimating some functional of the
distribution of loss. Monte Carlo simulation is often used to estimate the
mean of a distribution, but some risk measures, such as tail conditional
expectation, are not means of a distribution from which one can sample.
This calls for nested simulation, in which risk factors are sampled at an outer
level of simulation, while the inner level of simulation provides estimates
of loss given each realization of the risk factors. We present a general
method for providing a confidence interval for the risk measurement given
statistical error at two levels of simulation. The unusual structure of this
problem poses a challenge for confidence interval construction and creates
opportunities for enhancing the simulation's computational efficiency. We
will discuss a specific efficient procedure for estimating a confidence
interval for tail conditional expectation.
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